India’s central banker Reserve Bank of India today announced its monetary policy and it has decided to keep all the rates vis-à-vis repo rate, reverse repo rate, Cash Reserve Ratio and Statuary Liquidity Ratio unchanged. This move by the RBI has clear indication that RBI does not see lower inflation in near future but at the same time there is no threat on inflationary front. In last few months inflation in the economy has eased to some extent and analysts were expecting lower rates but Reserve Bank of India has decided to play safe than regret later.
This decision has some short term as well as long term implications for the economy. First implication is that even though there is no inflationary threat, inflation remains an important concern for the RBI and perhaps it is of view that economy cannot afford higher inflation in future as higher inflation would erode value. So it prefers lower GDP growth with lower inflation than higher GDP growth rate with higher inflation. That means financing in the economy would remain on the higher side and investments by corporate would on the other side till the policy continue or unless there is any extra incentives. That means India is going remain in high interest era for some more time with relatively lower GDP growth rates. Now it would be interesting to see how government responds through the fiscal policy instruments.