COVID19 and India: Till 5th July 2020

Life is returning back to the normal post lockdown. All the gains during the nationwide lockdown in India have been almost thinned or evaporated and India lost the opportunities to consolidate its position and give conclusive end to coronavirus outbreak. Now, things getting worse every day, India need to put far higher efforts. In this fight against coronavirus, every effort must to be conceptualized and implemented locally than depending on unfruitful centralized instructions. This article analyses the national as well as state data till 5th July 2020 for the purpose of analyses and comparisons.

Analysis of the National Data

On 5th July 2020, there were total 6,97,845 confirmed cases, 4,24,894 recoveries and 19,701 unfortunate deaths with a net of 2,53,250 active cases being treated across 35 states of India (Covid19india.org, 2020). On 28th June, there were 5,49,197 confirmed cases, 3,21,774 recoveries and 16,487 deaths with 2,10,936 active cases being treated across 35 states. In these seven days 1,48,648 new cases have been added to the total cases with 3,214 deaths. Most importantly, it took less than five days to add 1,00,000 new cases to the total.

Growth Rate

On 5th July, the new cases increased by 27.1% in one week against 28.6% in the previous week. So in this week, the growth rate in new cases has gone down. This is good but this slight decline in the growth rate seems stem from the increasing base than anything else. However, during this period testing and positivity rate has increased significantly.

Positivity Rate

On 5th July, the weekly positivity rate had increased to 9.5% in the corresponding week against 8.4% in the previous week. Similarly, the overall positivity rate had also increased to 7% from 6.5%. Both the weekly as well as overall positivity rates are increasing and there is no sign of moderation. Testing is the key to break the chain. Larger the numbers of tests, sooner India would be out the clutch of coronavirus.

Doubling Period

Doubling period for the confirmed cases as increased to 20.3 days from 19.3 days in this period but with a slight fall in the doubling period for active cases to 26.5 days from 26.7 days. One day increase in the doubling period of confirmed cases may be caused by increasing base. However the slight fall in doubling period for active cases will reverse in coming week. There is need for more concentrated efforts and those should be unidirectional from all the centres of power.

Recovery Rate

The recovery rate (weekly) and recovery rate (overall) increased to 69.4% and 60.9% on 5th July from 69.1% and 58.6% in the previous week respectively. That simply means that the numbers of new cases were far higher than the numbers of recovered cases. Until and unless 100% weekly patients recover, the corona curve will not flatten.

Per Million

On 5th July, confirmed cases, death and tests per million increased by 110, 2.4 and 1,163 units respectively. The increase in testing capacity is significant. Everyday India is testing around 2,20,000 individuals but still not enough to reverse the trend. Testing must increase manifold. With the progression of the outbreak, the numbers of confirmed cases, death and tests per million will increase naturally.

Comparison with World

On 5th July, death per million in India was 14.59 against the world average of 70.31. In Sweden it was as high as 531.37 (Worldometers, 2020). In most of the developed countries, this average is many times higher than that of the India.

Conclusion from National Data

On 5th July the proportion of active cases with respect to total confirmed cases fell to 36.3% with a recovery rate of 60.9% and case fatality rate of 2.8%. The case fatality rate is falling and will be far lower than 3% in India. The recovery time has improved to 14-18 days. However, the increasing positivity rate is cause of concern. It must fall to reverse the trend. The increasing numbers of active cases will make managing coronavirus outbreak a tougher task for states. However, from the data it can be expected that by end of third week of July, the trend would reverse but subject to efforts to testing.

Analysis of the State Data

On 5th July COVID19 had reached already to 35 states spreading to the whole country. In this section, the analysis of state level data is presented with the purpose to track the outbreak of the coronavirus to assess the vulnerability of different states and the measures that should be taken to contain the spread. States with no coronavirus cases or insufficient data have been dropped from the study but would be included once there is enough data for the same.

Positivity Rate

Out of 35 states, only 5 states namely, Telangana, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Gujarat had positivity rates higher than that of the national average of 9.5% as on 5th July against 8 states on 28th June. Telangana had positivity rate of 28.4% and still testing in Telangana is among the lowest. Big states like UP, Kerala, Punjab and Haryana have brought down positivity rate. Most of the small states with low population densities are doing better than bigger states with higher population densities. Also rural states are as usual doing better than urban states. However, the increasing positivity rate in Karnataka, West Bengal, Odisha, Assam, Bihar, Jharkhand, Sikkim and Tripura needs attention of these states.

Confirmed Cases Per Million

On 5th July, 10 states had equal to or higher cases per million than that of the national average of 516.92 against 9 states on 28th June. Among all states, Delhi had the highest average at 5018.88 followed by Laddakh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Situation in Telangana is very alarming at cases per million in one week has almost doubled to 642.18 from 387.4 on 28th June. Delhi, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu are very critical and Goa is expected to witness high numbers in coming days. Meghalaya had the lowest number at 22.33 followed by Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh.

Recovery Rate

On 5th July, 23 states had higher recovery rates (weekly) than the national average of 69.4%. Mizoram had the highest weekly recovery rate at 460% followed by Laddakh, Tripura, Sikkim and Chhattisgarh. Nagaland had the lowest recovery rate at 11.3% followed by Telangana, Andaman & Nicobar, Andhra Pradesh and Puducherry.

Case Fatality Rate

On 5th July, 5 states had higher case fatality rate than the national average of 2.8%. Gujarat had the highest case fatality rate at 5.4% followed by Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal and Delhi. Uttar Pradesh had case fatality rate equal to national average. Rural states have lower case fatality rates than states with higher urban population.

Conclusion from State Data

From the above data, it can be said that on average states like Punjab, Kerala, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh did very well followed by Kerala. States like Telangana, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Gujarat followed by Goa need to improve situation and should not commit the same mistake as Delhi did. Telangana needs to test more followed by Goa.

Conclusion

On 5th July June the proportion of active cases with respect to total confirmed cases fell to 36.3% with a recovery rate of 60.9% and case fatality rate of 2.8%. The case fatality rate is falling and will be lower than 3% in India. The recovery time has improved to 14-18 days. However, the increasing growth (new cases) and positivity rates are cause of concern. These must fall. With increasing numbers of active cases, managing coronavirus outbreak is now even a tougher task than previous weeks. States like Telangana, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Gujarat followed by Goa need to improve situation and should not commit the same mistake as Delhi did. Telangana needs to test more followed by Goa.

Bibliography:-

• Covid19india.org. (2020, July 6). https://www.covid19india.org/. Retrieved from Coronavirus: https://www.covid19india.org/ 
• Worldometers. (2020, July 6). Worldometers. Retrieved from Coronavirus: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

- Dr. Rajeev Kumar Upadhyay