COVID19 and India: Till 28th June 2020

The nationwide blanket lockdown in India is now a thing of past. Post lockdown, far higher efforts are needed. To be successful, this fight against coronavirus needs to be localized. Centralized efforts wouldn’t be effective anymore. This article analyses the national as well as state data till 28th June 2020 for the purpose of analyses and comparisons.

Analysis of the National Data

On 28th June 2020, there were total 5,49,197 confirmed cases, 3,21,774 recoveries and 16,487 unfortunate deaths with a net of 2,10,936 active cases being treated across 35 states of India (Covid19india.org, 2020). On 21st June, there were 4,26,901 confirmed cases, 2,37,258 recoveries and 13,703 deaths with 1,75,940 active cases being treated across 35 states. In these seven days more than 1,20,000 new cases have added to total with more than 4,000 deaths. Most importantly, it took less than six days to add 1,00,000 new cases to the total.

Growth Rate

On 28th June, the new cases increased by 38.6% in 7 days while in the previous week as on 21st June it increased by 28.2%. So in this week growth in new cases has increased despite of increased base and it is not good news. This is due to increasing positivity rate during this period. However, testing has increased significantly during this period.

Positivity Rate

On 28h June, the weekly positivity rate had increased to 8.4% from 8% on 21st June. Similarly, the overall positivity rate had also increased to 6.5% from 6.1% during this period. So the weekly as well as overall positivity rates are increasing and there is no sign of moderation. Testing is the key to break the chain. Larger the numbers of tests, sooner India would be out the clutch of coronavirus.

Doubling Period

Doubling period has fallen to 19.3 and 26.7 days on 28th June from 19.5 and 36 days in the previous week respectively for the confirmed and active cases. This indicates that the downward trend may reverse and more efforts are required than just talk. These efforts should be unidirectional from all the centres of power.

Recovery Rate

The recovery rate (weekly) and recovery rate (overall) increased to 69.1% and 58.6% on 28th June from 72% and 55.6% in the previous week respectively. That simply means that the numbers of new cases were far higher than the previous period and the numbers of recovered cases remained almost the same. Weekly recovery must improve every week.

Per Million

On 28th June, confirmed cases, death and tests per million increased. The increases are by 90, 2 and 1,100 units respectively for confirmed cases, death and tests per million. There has been significant increase in tests. Everyday India is testing more than 2,20,000 individuals. Considering the high numbers, test capacity needs to be increased manifold. However, as the outbreak will progress, the confirmed cases, death and tests per million will increase.

Comparison with World

On 28th June, death per million in India was 12.21 against the world average of 66.43. In Sweden it was as high as 575.13 (Worldometers, 2020). In most of the developed countries, this average is many times higher than India.

Conclusion from National Data

On 28th June the proportion of active cases with respect to total confirmed cases fell to 38% with a recovery rate of 59% and case fatality rate of 3%. The case fatality rate is falling and will be lower than 3% in India. The recovery time has improved to 14-18 days. However, the increasing growth (new cases) and positivity rates are cause of concern. These must fall. Managing coronavirus outbreak is now even a tougher walk than previous period.

Analysis of the State Data

On 28th June COVID19 had reached already to 35 states spreading to the whole country. In this section, the analysis of state level data is presented with the purpose to track the outbreak of the coronavirus to assess the vulnerability of different states and what measures should be taken to contain the spread of virus. States with no coronavirus cases or insufficient data have been dropped from the study but would be included once there is enough data for the same.

Positivity Rate

Out of 35 states, total 8 states had positivity rate than that of the national average of 8.4% as on 28th June. Mainly Telangana, Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Haryana need to manage coronavirus outbreak more efficiently. Most of the small states with low population densities are doing better than bigger states with higher population densities. Also rural states are as usual doing better than urban states. However, the increasing positivity rate in UP, Karnataka, Goa, West Bengal and Odisha needs attention of these states. These states need to increase testing that committing the same mistake as of Delhi.

Confirmed Cases Per Million

On 28th June, out of 35 states, total 9 states had equal to or higher cases per million than that of the national average of 406.81. Among all states, Delhi had the highest average at 4192.84 followed by Laddakh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Goa. Situation in Delhi, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu are very critical and Goa is expected to witness high numbers in coming days. Meghalaya had the lowest number at 15.51 followed by Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh.

Recovery Rate

On 28th June out of 35 states, 7 states had higher recovery rates (weekly) than the national average. Chandigarh had the highest weekly recovery rate at 77.8% followed by Rajasthan. Andaman & Nicobar, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. Mizoram had the lowest recovery rate at 6.4% followed by Arunachal Pradesh, Laddakh, Goa, Dadar & Nagar Haveli. These states have small numbers of cases. States with large numbers such Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi needs to improve its respective recovery rates.

Case Fatality Rate

On 28th June, out of 35 states, 5 states had higher case fatality rate than the national average of 3%. Gujarat had the highest case fatality rate at 5.8% followed by Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal and Delhi. Rural states have lower case fatality rates than states with higher urban population.

Conclusion from State Data

From the above data, it can be said that on average states like Punjab, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh did very well followed by Kerala. States like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi followed by Uttar Pradesh need to improve situation and should not commit the same mistake as Delhi did.

Conclusion

On 28th June the proportion of active cases with respect to total confirmed cases fell to 38% with a recovery rate of 59% and case fatality rate of 3%. The case fatality rate is falling and will be lower than 3% in India. The recovery time has improved to 14-18 days. However, the increasing growth (new cases) and positivity rates are cause of concern. These must fall. Managing coronavirus outbreak is now even a tougher walk than previous period. States like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi followed by Uttar Pradesh need to improve situation and should not commit the same mistake as Delhi did.

Bibliography:-

• Covid19india.org. (2020, March 25). https://www.covid19india.org/. Retrieved from Coronavirus: https://www.covid19india.org/ 
• Worldometers. (2020, March 25). Worldometers. Retrieved from Coronavirus: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

- Dr. Rajeev Kumar Upadhyay